日本 - 原文链接：https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zYKUiUyauuL0Pak43oFDjA
高中同学，现博士导师的文章
https://www.journalofinfection.com/article/S0163-4453(20)30098-0/fulltext
这一篇是和另外一位搞数学的同学2月初联合发表的关于中国拐点的推算
corona1.jpg (169.65 KB, 下载次数: 0)
下载附件 保存到相册
（注：中国行动红色表示,美国行动绿色表示，国际组织蓝色表示）1. 2019年12月31日，中国首次向世界卫生组织报告新型肺炎疫情1, 2。2. 2019年12月31日到2020年1月3日，中国向世界卫生组织总计报告44例新型肺炎病人，但依然没有鉴定病原体1。3. 1月2日，世界卫生组织在其三级组织（国家、地区和总部）启动了新型肺炎疫情管理系统1。4. 1月6日: 美国疾控中心发出了对中国武汉的旅行警告3。5. 1月7日：中国分离并鉴定了新型肺炎的病原体：新型冠状病毒（SARS-CoV-2）2。6. 1月7日：为应对新冠病毒肺炎疫情，世界卫生组织启动了研发蓝图，协调各国研发行动 2。7. 1月7日：美国疾控中心启动了新冠病毒肺炎疫情管理系统3。8. 1月10日：中国疾控中心将新型冠状病毒核酸检测引物探针序列信息通报世界卫生组织。9. 1月11日-12日：中国卫健委向世界卫生组织报告，疫情可能源于武汉海鲜市场1。10. 1月11日: 美国疾控中心发出了对中国武汉的一级旅行警告3。11. 1月12日：中国分享了新冠病毒的基因序列信息，为研发检测诊断试剂奠定了基础1。12. 1月17日：美国疾控中心在三大机场（旧金山、纽约、洛杉矶）启动对来自武汉旅行者的健康检查3。13. 1月20日，WHO公布全球总计282个新冠病例：中国278例，泰国2例，韩国日本各1例，后4例均从武汉输入1。14. 截止到1月20日1a) 中国总计确诊278例新冠患者，其中258例来自湖北，14例来自广东，5例来自北京，1例来自上海。b) 278例确诊患者中，51例为重症，12例为危重，重症比例23%，明显高于普通流感。c) 武汉报告了6例新冠患者死亡，粗死亡比例2.3%，明显高于普通流感。15. 1月20日：武汉报告60例新确诊患者，其中3例死亡1，死亡比例达5%。16. 1月20日：中国领导人（习近平总书记，李克强总理，孙春兰副总理）分别就疫情防控作出批示或领导具体工作；国家卫生健康委发布公告，将新冠肺炎纳入传染病防治法规定的乙类传染病并采取甲类传染病的防控措施。17. 1月20日：国家卫生健康委组织高级别专家组召开记者会，组长钟南山代表专家组通报，“现在可以说，肯定的，有人传人现象。”“除非极为重要的事情，一般不要去武汉。”18. 1月20日：美国国家过敏与传染病研究所所长福奇（Anthony Fauci）宣称，国立卫生研究院已经开始启动新冠病毒疫苗研发3。19. 1月21日: 美国疾控中心启动了新冠疫情应急指挥中心3。20. 1月21日：美国报告第一例新冠确诊患者4。21. 1月23日：美国疾控中心从美国食品与医药管理局（FDA）为其开发的新冠病毒检测试剂获得紧急授权3。22. 1月27日：美国疾控中心发出对中国3级旅行警告3。23. 1月29日：美国白宫宣布成立新冠病毒特别小组控制疫情，并对总统更新疫情信息3。24. 1月30日：世界卫生组织宣布新冠病毒疫情为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件2。25. 1月31日：美国政府宣布：新冠疫情为公共卫生突发事件，对中国施行旅行限制，暂停有新冠病毒传播风险的外国公民入境，国土安全部把来自中国的航班集中纳入到7个机场管理3。26. 截止到1月31日，美国疾控中心公布总计8例确诊新冠患者 4；但世界卫生组织公布的美国确诊患者只有6例，到2月1日也只有7例1，数据有偏差。27. 截止到1月31日：世界卫生组织公布中国（含港澳台）的确诊病例9720人，疑似病例15238人，重症患者1527人，死亡213人1, 粗死亡率为2.1%，明显高于普通流感。参考文献：1. WHO: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/.2. WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) R&D: https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus/en/.3. TIMELINE: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S DECISIVE ACTIONS TO COMBAT THE CORONAVIRUS: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/timeline-the-trump-administrations-decisive-actions-to-combat-the-coronavirus/.4. Cases in U.S.: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html.
第二部分：有关新冠的重要论文投稿发表和数据共享日程表（注：中国学者红色表示,美国学者绿色表示,其它国家学者蓝色表示）
1. 1月5日：Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome, GenBank: MN908947.3, by Zhang,Y.-Z. and his colleagues from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China (关键数据共享，上海复旦大学公共卫生临床中心的科学家，首次获得新冠病毒基因组序列数据，并提交给美国国立卫生研究院管理的NCBI数据库)
2. 1月7日: Zhang Y-Z and his colleagues, A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3 (Received: January 7; Accepted: January 28, Published online: February 3; Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China). (关键论文：中国上海复旦大学公共卫生临床中心的科学家首次将新冠病毒基因组测序、进化分类的论文投稿给Nature，确认新冠病毒和蝙蝠类冠状病毒的基因序列同源高达89.1%，和SARS具有明显的差异)
3. 1月14日：Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate 2019-nCoV_HKU-SZ-002a_2020, complete genomeSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Genome sequencing，Genbank：MN938384.1 and MN975262, by Chan,J.F.-W and colleagues from the University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China (关键数据共享，中国香港大学深圳医院的科学家，首次获得家庭聚集传染的新冠病毒基因组序列数据，并提交给美国国立卫生研究院管理的NCBI数据库)4. 1月19日: Chen et al., A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus (School of Public Health, Xiamen University, China)5. 1月20日: Shi, Z-L and her colleagues, A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7 (Received: 20 January 2020Accepted: 29 January 2020, Published online: 3 February 2020; Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan, China.) (关键论文：来自中国武汉病毒所的科学家将新冠病毒基因组测序、进化以及感染受体的论文投稿给Nature，发现新冠病毒和云南蝙蝠冠状病毒（RatG13）的基因组同源性达96%，和SARS的同源性只有79.6%，但利用和SARS同样的ACE2受体感染人源细胞)。6. 1月22日: Michael Letko, Vincent Munster, Functional assessment of cell entry and receptor usage for lineage B β-coronaviruses, including 2019-nCoV, preprint version, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.22.915660, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, USA. (关键论文：美国国家过敏与传染病研究所的科学家，研究新冠病毒与其它冠状病毒感染细胞的能力，并确认ACE2为新冠病毒感染人源细胞的受体)7. 1月23日: JAMA, Audio Interview: Coronavirus Infections—More Than Just the Common Cold, by Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, USA. (关键观点：美国国家过敏与传染病研究所所长福奇（Anthony Fauci）接受美国医学学会杂志采访，认为新冠病毒不同于普通流感病毒，传染性强，死亡率高)8. 1月23日: JAMA, Video: The 2019 Coronavirus Outbreak – What We Know So Far9. 1月23日: JAMA, Video: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Update10. 1月24日:Chan, et al., A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster, Lancet 2020; 395: 514–23, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.（关键论文：来自中国香港大学的科学家研究了家庭聚集感染病例，证实人传人，获得了人传人的新冠病毒基因组序列）Huang et al., Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Lancet 2020; 395: 497–506, Jin Yin-tan Hospital, Wuhan, China.（关键论文：来自中国武汉金银潭医院的科学家对武汉早期（1月2日截止）收治的41例新冠患者进行了系统分析，其中13例进入ICU，6例死亡，重症率高，死亡率高，均显著高于普通流感）Chen Wang, Peter W Horby, Frederick G Hayden, George F GaoA, novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern, Lancet, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China.11. Read et al., Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, preprint version, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549, Lancaster University, United Kingdom; University of Florida, USA.（关键论文：来自美国和英国的科学家对新冠疫情流行病学进行了分析，预估其基本再生数高达3.8，明显高于普通流感）12. January 24: Benvenuto, The 2019-new coronavirus epidemic: evidence for virus evolution, Domenico , Marta Giovannetti, Alessandra Ciccozzi, Silvia Spoto, Silvia Angeletti, Massimo Ciccozzi, preprint version, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.24.915157, University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Italy.13. January 25: Shen et al., Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China, preprint version, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916726, Xi’an Jiaotong University, China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia.14. January 27: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate WIV02, complete genome, GenBank: MN996527–MN996532, by Shi, Z-L and her colleagues from Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan, China.（关键数据共享：来自中国武汉病毒所的科学家，获得了新冠病毒以及同源性最高的云南蝙蝠冠状病毒的基因组序列，并提交给美国国立卫生研究院管理的NCBI数据库)15. January 29:January 29: Li et al., Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia, N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1199-1207 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.(关键论文：来自中国疾控中心等单位的科学家，对武汉早期425例新冠病人进行了分析，确认紧密接触后人传人，基本再生数为2.2，平均潜伏期为5.2天，早期每7.4天倍增) Lu et al., Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor Binding, Lancet 2020; 395: 565–74, Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China. (关键论文：来自中国疾控中心等单位的科学家，获得了10个新冠病毒基因组的数据，发现几乎没有变异，和蝙蝠冠状病毒的同源性达88%)Chen et al., Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study, Lancet 2020; 395: 507–13, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. (关键论文：来自中国疾控中心等单位的科学家，研究了99个新冠患者，其中49例有武汉海鲜市场的暴露史，11例死亡，死亡率超过10%)Zhao et al., Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak, preprint version, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
16. January 30: JAMA, Clinical Review Audio: Dr Anthony Fauci: What Clinicians Need to Know About Coronavirus (CME), ". . .A new virus known as the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is rapidly spreading through China. The rapid spread and severity of this illness are worrisome and the possibility that it develops into a pandemic is very real., Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, provides an update on this new disease.. . ." (关键观点：美国国家过敏与传染病研究所所长福奇（Anthony Fauci）接受美国医学学会杂志采访，称新冠肺炎的快速传播和严重病情令人担忧，推测其很可能成为全球大流行病)17. January 31: Joseph T Wu, Kathy Leung, Gabriel M Leung, Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol. 395, No. 10225, p689–697, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. (关键论文：来自中国香港大学的科学家，对武汉早期新冠疫情进行了分析，估计基本再生数为2.68).
Part one: Timeline of official actions by China, the US and WHO(note: China colored in red, the US in green and WHO in blue)
1. December 31, 2019: China reports the discovery of the coronavirus to the World Health Organization 1, 2.2. From 31 December 2019 through 3 January 2020, a total of 44 case-patients with pneumonia of unknown etiology were reported to WHO by the national authorities in China. During this reported period, the causal agent was not identified 1.3. January 2, the incident management system was activated across the three levels of WHO (country office, regional office and headquarters) 1.4. January 6: The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a travel notice for Wuhan, China due to the spreading coronavirus 3.5. January 7: Chinese authorities isolated and identified the coronavirus (COVID-2019) as the causative virus 2, named first as 2019-nCoV and later as SARS-CoV-2.6. January 7, As part of WHO’s response to the outbreak, the R&D Blueprint has been activated to accelerate diagnostics, vaccines and therapeutics for this novel coronavirus 2.7. January 7: The US CDC established a coronavirus incident management system to better share and respond to information about the virus 3.8. January 10: Chinese CDC reported the nucleotide sequences of probes for COVID-19 testing to WHO。9. January 11 and 12, WHO received further detailed information from the National Health Commission China that the outbreak is associated with exposures in one seafood market in Wuhan City 1.10. January 11: The US CDC issued a Level I travel health notice for Wuhan, China 3.11. January 12: China shared the genetic sequence of the novel coronavirus for countries to use in developing specific diagnostic kits 1.12. January 17: The US CDC began implementing public health entry screening at the 3 U.S. airports that received the most travelers from Wuhan – San Francisco, New York JFK, and Los Angeles 3.13. As of 20 January, 282 confirmed cases of 2019-nCoV have been reported from four countries including China (278 cases), Thailand (2 cases), Japan (1 case) and the Republic of Korea (1 case); Cases in Thailand, Japan and Republic of Korea were exported from Wuhan City, China 1. 14. As of 20 January 1a) China reported 278 cases, among which 258 cases were reported from Hubei Province, 14 from Guangdong Province, five from Beijing Municipality and one from Shanghai Municipality;b) Of the 278 confirmed cases, 51 cases are severely ill, 12 are in critical condition; the ratio of severe + critical patients is up to 23%, apparently higher than common cold.c) Six deaths have been reported from Wuhan City, with a crude fatality ratio being 2.3% and higher than common cold15. January 20: Wuhan City: 60 new confirmed cases including three deaths 1, with a crude fatality ratio being up to 5%.16. January 20: Chinese leaders (General Secretary Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang, Vice Premier Sun Chunlan) made instructions or led specific work on epidemic prevention and control against COVID-19; the National Health Commission of China issued an announcement to include COVID-19 in the Class B infectious diseases prescribed by the Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control Act and to take measures to prevent and control it as Class A infectious diseases17. January 20: the National Health Commission of China organized a high-level expert group to hold a press conference. The team leader Zhong Nanshan announced, "Now it can be concluded, there are person-to-person transmission for COVID-19." "Unless it is extremely important, generally do not go to Wuhan . "18. January 20: Dr. Anthony Fauci (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases) announces the National Institutes of Health is already working on the development of a vaccine for the coronavirus 3.19. January 21: The US CDC activated its emergency operations center to provide ongoing support to the coronavirus response 3.20. January 21: The first COVID-19 case was reported in the US 4.21. January 23: The US CDC sought a “special emergency authorization” from the FDA to allow states to use its newly developed coronavirus test 3.22. January 27: The US CDC issued a level III travel health notice urging Americans to avoid all nonessential travel to China due to the coronavirus 3.23. January 29: The White House announced the formation of the Coronavirus Task Force to help monitor and contain the spread of the virus and provide updates to the President 3. 24. January 30, following the recommendations of the Emergency Committee, the WHO Director-General declared that the outbreak constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) 2.25. January 31: The Trump Administration 3:a) Declared the coronavirus a public health emergency.b) Announced Chinese travel restrictions.c) Suspended entry into the United States for foreign nationals who pose a risk of transmitting the coronavirus.d) The Department of Homeland Security took critical steps to funnel all flights from China into just 7 domestic U.S. airports.26. As of January 31: A total of 8 COVID-19 cases were reported in the US by US CDC 4, however, WHO recorded only 6 and 7 cases in the US as of January 31 and February 1, respectively 1.27. As of January 31: A total 9720 confirmed, 15238 suspected, 1527 severe and 213 deaths were reported in China 1, with a crude fatality ratio being 2.1% higher than that of common cold.References:1. WHO: Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports, https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports/.2. WHO Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) R&D: https://www.who.int/blueprint/priority-diseases/key-action/novel-coronavirus/en/.3. TIMELINE: THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION’S DECISIVE ACTIONS TO COMBAT THE CORONAVIRUS: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/media/timeline-the-trump-administrations-decisive-actions-to-combat-the-coronavirus/.4. Cases in U.S.: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html.
Part two: Key publications and data sharing by researchers from China, the US and other countries(note: China colored in red, the US in green and other countries in blue)
1. January 5: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate Wuhan-Hu-1, complete genome, GenBank: MN908947.3, by Zhang,Y.-Z. and his colleagues from Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center & School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China. (Critical data sharing: Chinesescienctists obtained the genetic sequence of SARS-Cov-2 and sumitted it to NCIB databased operated by the National Institute of Health, USA.)28. January 7: Zhang Y-Z and his colleagues, A new coronavirus associated with human respiratory disease in China, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2008-3 (Received: January 7; Accepted: January 28, Published online: February 3; Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center, Fudan University, Shanghai, China). (Critical paper: Chinese scientiests summitted their research paper on the genomic sequencing, origin and evolutoin of SARS-CoV-2 to Nature, showing that the virus was most closely related (89.1% nucleotide similarity) to a group ofSARS-like coronaviruses and was distinct with SARS.)2. January 14：Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate 2019-nCoV_HKU-SZ-002a_2020, complete genomeSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 Genome sequencing，Genbank：MN938384.1 and MN975262, by Chan and colleagues, The University of Hong Kong-Shenzhen Hospital, Shenzhen, China (Critical data sharing:Chinesescienctists obtained the genetic sequences of several SARS-Cov-2 strains as isolated from household clustering patients of COVID-19, and sumitted them to NCIB databased operated by the National Institute of Health, USA.)29. January 19: Chen et al., A mathematical model for simulating the transmission of Wuhan novel Coronavirus (School of Public Health, Xiamen University, China)30. January 20: Shi, Z-L and her colleagues, A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2012-7 (Received: 20 January 2020Accepted: 29 January 2020, Published online: 3 February 2020; Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan, China.) (Critical paper: Chinese scientiests summitted their research paper on the genomic sequencing, origin, evolutoin and receptor of SARS-CoV-2 to Nature, showing that the virus was most closely related (96% nucleotide similarity) to a bat coronavirus RatG13 but distinct with SARS (79.6% nucleotide similarity), and the infection of the virus to human cells depends on the same receptor (ACE2) as SARS.)31. January 22: Michael Letko, Vincent Munster, Functional assessment of cell entry and receptor usage for lineage B β-coronaviruses, including 2019-nCoV, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.22.915660, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, USA (Critical paper: US scientiests studied the infection ability of SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses and confirmed that ACE2 is the receptor for infection.)32. January 23: JAMA, Audio Interview: Coronavirus Infections—More Than Just the Common Cold, by Dr Anthony Fauci (director of announces the National Institutes of Health) 3. (Critical opinion: Dr. Anthony Fauci (director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, USA), during an interview with JAMA (the official journal of American Medical Association, announced that COVID-19 is different from common cold because of its higher contiguous capability and higher mortality.)33. January 23: JAMA, Video: The 2019 Coronavirus Outbreak – What We Know So Far34. January 23: JAMA, Video: 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Update35. January 24:a) Chan, et al., A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster, Lancet 2020; 395: 514–23, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. (Critical paper: Chinese scientiests confirmed the person-to-person transmission of COVID-19 and also obtained the genetic sequences of ten SARS-CoV-2 viruses.)b) Huang et al., Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China, Lancet 2020; 395: 497–506, Jin Yin-tan Hospital, Wuhan, China. (Critical paper: Chinese scientiests found that among 41 COVID-19 patients, 13 were in ICU and 6 died, apparently much more severe than common cold.)c) Chen Wang, Peter W Horby, Frederick G Hayden, George F GaoA, novel coronavirus outbreak of global health concern, Lancet, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30185-9, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), Beijing, China.36. January 24: Read et al., Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549, Lancaster University, United Kingdom; University of Florida, USA. (Critical paper: Scientists from UK and the US found that the basic reproductiven number of COVID-19 was up to 3.8, much higher than that of common cold.)37. January 24: Benvenuto, The 2019-new coronavirus epidemic: evidence for virus evolution, Domenico , Marta Giovannetti, Alessandra Ciccozzi, Silvia Spoto, Silvia Angeletti, Massimo Ciccozzi, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.24.915157 (University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Italy)38. January 25: Shen et al., Modelling the epidemic trend of the 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak in China, https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916726 (Xi’an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi’an, Shaanxi, 710061, PR China; Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Alfred Health, Melbourne, Australia)3. January 27: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 isolate WIV02, complete genome, GenBank: MN996527–MN996532, by Shi, Z-L and her colleagues from Wuhan Institute of Virology, Wuhan, China. (Critical data sharing:Chinesescienctists obtained the genetic sequences of SARS-Cov-2 strains and the closely related bat coronavirus (RatG13), and sumitted them to NCIB databased operated by the National Institute of Health, USA.)39. January 29:a) January 29: Li et al., Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia, N Engl J Med 2020; 382:1199-1207 DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316 (Critical paper: Chinese scientists showed that among 425 COVID-19 patients from Wuhan in the early stage of the outbreak the basic reproductive number was 2.2, the mean incubation period was 5.2 and the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days.)b) Lu et al., Genomic characterisation and epidemiology of 2019 novel coronavirus: implications for virus origins and receptor Binding, Lancet 2020; 395: 565–74 (Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China)c) Chen et al., Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study, Lancet 2020; 395: 507–13, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China. (Critical paper: Chinese scientists found that among 99 COVID-19 patients from Wuhan 49 had expose to the seafood market and 11 died with a crude fatality ratio of over 10%.)d) Zhao et al., Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395 ,(Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China).40. January 30: JAMA, Clinical Review Audio: Dr Anthony Fauci: What Clinicians Need to Know About Coronavirus (CME), ". . .A new virus known as the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is rapidly spreading through China. The rapid spread and severity of this illness are worrisome and the possibility that it develops into a pandemic is very real. Anthony Fauci, MD, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, provides an update on this new disease.. . ." (Critical opinion: Dr. Fauci raised concern about the possibility that COVID-19 would become a pandemic.)41. January 31: Joseph T Wu, Kathy Leung, Gabriel M Leung, Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study, The Lancet, Vol. 395, No. 10225, p689–697, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China. (Critical paper: Chinese scientists found that the basic reproductive number of COVID-19 in Wuhan in the early stage of the outbreak was 2.68).————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————
无他，希望疫苗特效药早日，问世希望病毒早日消失
日子再艰难也要过，少说多做，做自己能做的事情
评论
美军方医疗机关NCMI去年十一月就向特朗普提出了一份武汉会爆发流行病的报告
评论
报告国务院了么？可以擅自发表么？
评论
还得请示你批准吗？
评论
美国这次真的牛逼了
评论
那个时候还不叫新冠
日本 Japan
·日本中文新闻 唐田绘里香为新剧《极恶女王》剃光头 展现演员决心
·日本中文新闻 真子小室夫妇新居引发隐私担忧
·日本中文新闻 前AKB48成员柏木由纪与搞笑艺人交往曝光
·日本学校 ｛日本国际学校｝梅田インターナショナルスクール
·日本学校 LINE：sm287 陳雨菲、20歳、台湾からの留学生、東京に来たばかり
·日本留学生活 出售平成22年走行48000km 代步小车
·日本华人网络交流 円相場 一時1ドル＝140円台まで上昇？
·日本华人网络交流 问日本华人一个问题
·日本旅游代购 富山接机
·生活百科 英国转澳大利亚转换插头
·汽车 【求助】修车遇到困难怎么办？